Pensions: Projects me a reform | Slate
At the time, the opposition and the trade unions had exclaimed that predict destoner machine what would be the economic and demographic situation of France in forty years fell within the "grotesque" (Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Left Party) to " destoner machine Nostradamus "(Jean-Claude Mailly, FP), or" science fiction "(Jean-Louis destoner machine Malys, CFDT).
While no one has been able to predict the current destoner machine economic and financial crisis, the exercise of predicting changes of the forty years may indeed destoner machine seem vain. And the idea of a reform based on these projections seems strange.
The NRC began his own 2010 report explaining have to revise the 2007 because of the crisis. Moreover, destoner machine the January 2007 report revising the 2006 due to new population projections by INSEE (now saw 1.9 children per woman in 2050 as the central scenario, against 1.8 planned some time ago).
"The problem is we live in an uncertain world," said Mathieu Plane, senior economist at the Department of Analysis and Forecasting OFCE, which makes medium-term projections destoner machine for the Senate, "but we are still forced to make decisions for years to come. " destoner machine Projections / Forecasts
Hence the projection exercise, not to be confused with a forecast. A forecast is short term and attempts to establish the evolution of the growth in recent quarters, trying destoner machine to predict the economic near future by analyzing both structural trends and cyclical events, destoner machine and integrating external data as oil prices destoner machine and the growth of other countries. Forecasts are "safer" than projected, although they can also be mistaken for an event such as the financial crisis made.
The projections are medium and long term. From past structural trends over long period (thirty or forty years or more), analysts project scenarios. There is generally a central destoner machine scenario and other scenarios that see the future more pink or darker using different assumptions.
What about another financial crisis, massive population displacements, a version of the 2050 H1N1 flu? "Of course we can make variations disaster scenario admits Mathieu Plane, but it is not useful. If there is another crisis in five years, the main problem is not the pension ... "
"We had a global crisis in 1929, we had one there, if it is a per decade is the global capitalist system that can not work. We can not take as a central scenario worst-case scenario. "Projections of COR
The NRC has made its projections using existing demographic data (transition to retirement of the baby boomers, the current demographic situation, projections of fertility rates and life expectancy ...), and its president Raphaël Hadas-Lebel noted that "it is because we are not sure of the things we did in 2050 three scenarios."
Although these projections could be made obsolete by a future event such as those of 2007 were a result of the crisis, and a new reform would then replace the current one, "it is normal in terms of retirement he set a fault horizon, "he says: pension expenditure are inert, meaning that when someone retires, the expenses are incurred for the next 25 years (the life expectancy in France at birth is 84.5 years for women and 77.8 years for men in 2009, according destoner machine to INSEE).
The NRC has made "three alternative economic scenarios, destoner machine none of these three scenarios is preferred by the Council," said the 2010 report. The government has chosen destoner machine to align with Scenario B, which projects a rate of long-term unemployment of 4.5% and an increase in labor productivity of 1.5% in the long term (Scenario A projected 4 5 and 1.8% C, 1.5% and 7). And according to the government's reform will ensure a return to balance destoner machine pension plans in 2018, details the presentation file action.
In his case, the government says it refused to "ease that would have been to place themselves under the most favorable scenario," the scenario A. But even based on the scenario of the blah-ease, the reform destoner machine will be scanned by any scale crisis that the world through the next forty years, making projections COR 2010 obsolete. And that's no way to project.
Cécile Cécile Dehesdin Dehesdin is journalist Slate.fr, where it examines in particular topics related to the Internet, justice, pop culture and the United States. It has a double master destoner machine of Journalism School of Journalism at Sciences Po and Columbia University in New York (Fulbright winner).
At the time, the opposition and the trade unions had exclaimed that predict destoner machine what would be the economic and demographic situation of France in forty years fell within the "grotesque" (Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Left Party) to " destoner machine Nostradamus "(Jean-Claude Mailly, FP), or" science fiction "(Jean-Louis destoner machine Malys, CFDT).
While no one has been able to predict the current destoner machine economic and financial crisis, the exercise of predicting changes of the forty years may indeed destoner machine seem vain. And the idea of a reform based on these projections seems strange.
The NRC began his own 2010 report explaining have to revise the 2007 because of the crisis. Moreover, destoner machine the January 2007 report revising the 2006 due to new population projections by INSEE (now saw 1.9 children per woman in 2050 as the central scenario, against 1.8 planned some time ago).
"The problem is we live in an uncertain world," said Mathieu Plane, senior economist at the Department of Analysis and Forecasting OFCE, which makes medium-term projections destoner machine for the Senate, "but we are still forced to make decisions for years to come. " destoner machine Projections / Forecasts
Hence the projection exercise, not to be confused with a forecast. A forecast is short term and attempts to establish the evolution of the growth in recent quarters, trying destoner machine to predict the economic near future by analyzing both structural trends and cyclical events, destoner machine and integrating external data as oil prices destoner machine and the growth of other countries. Forecasts are "safer" than projected, although they can also be mistaken for an event such as the financial crisis made.
The projections are medium and long term. From past structural trends over long period (thirty or forty years or more), analysts project scenarios. There is generally a central destoner machine scenario and other scenarios that see the future more pink or darker using different assumptions.
What about another financial crisis, massive population displacements, a version of the 2050 H1N1 flu? "Of course we can make variations disaster scenario admits Mathieu Plane, but it is not useful. If there is another crisis in five years, the main problem is not the pension ... "
"We had a global crisis in 1929, we had one there, if it is a per decade is the global capitalist system that can not work. We can not take as a central scenario worst-case scenario. "Projections of COR
The NRC has made its projections using existing demographic data (transition to retirement of the baby boomers, the current demographic situation, projections of fertility rates and life expectancy ...), and its president Raphaël Hadas-Lebel noted that "it is because we are not sure of the things we did in 2050 three scenarios."
Although these projections could be made obsolete by a future event such as those of 2007 were a result of the crisis, and a new reform would then replace the current one, "it is normal in terms of retirement he set a fault horizon, "he says: pension expenditure are inert, meaning that when someone retires, the expenses are incurred for the next 25 years (the life expectancy in France at birth is 84.5 years for women and 77.8 years for men in 2009, according destoner machine to INSEE).
The NRC has made "three alternative economic scenarios, destoner machine none of these three scenarios is preferred by the Council," said the 2010 report. The government has chosen destoner machine to align with Scenario B, which projects a rate of long-term unemployment of 4.5% and an increase in labor productivity of 1.5% in the long term (Scenario A projected 4 5 and 1.8% C, 1.5% and 7). And according to the government's reform will ensure a return to balance destoner machine pension plans in 2018, details the presentation file action.
In his case, the government says it refused to "ease that would have been to place themselves under the most favorable scenario," the scenario A. But even based on the scenario of the blah-ease, the reform destoner machine will be scanned by any scale crisis that the world through the next forty years, making projections COR 2010 obsolete. And that's no way to project.
Cécile Cécile Dehesdin Dehesdin is journalist Slate.fr, where it examines in particular topics related to the Internet, justice, pop culture and the United States. It has a double master destoner machine of Journalism School of Journalism at Sciences Po and Columbia University in New York (Fulbright winner).
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